take a look, these are the states that john kerry won in 2004. if the president holds on to all of the kerry states, all he has to do is to add florida's 29 electoral college votes, and he gets to 275. even if he lost the diciest of the kerry states, which is new hampshire, the president would still only need florida to get to 271 and win. here's another thing to take a look at. according to nate silver of all the swing states, florida is the swingiest of them all. it's the one where the odds of victory are closest to 50/50. romney is favored slightly with a 57% chance of winning. as all of you loyal viewers know, i just moved florida into the blue column yesterday. what does that nate silver know anyway? who will the sunshine state shine upon tuesday. let's put it through the spine cycle. i went through a lot of my reasons yesterday including demographic shifts that are favorable to democrats, increased latino enthusiasm, but the other thing i really want to point to today is the obama campaign early voting turnout machine. a memo was just leake